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.40 S&W Ammunition Price Analysis: Historical Trends & Market Insights
While not as widely used as 9mm, the .40 S&W caliber remains a significant player in the firearms world, especially among law enforcement and self-defense enthusiasts. Understanding price trends for .40 S&W ammunition can help shooters make cost-effective purchasing decisions and plan their ammunition budget more efficiently. At BlackBasin.com, we've compiled comprehensive data on .40 S&W ammunition prices to provide you with valuable market insights.
Breaking Down the .40 S&W Price Chart
Our price tracking chart covers daily average prices for brand new brass casing .40 S&W rounds from 2020 through March 2025. This detailed timeline reveals several distinct market phases and pricing patterns that every .40 S&W shooter should understand.
Key Price Statistics
- All-time low: $0.20 per round
- All-time high: $0.93 per round
- Current average price: $0.38 per round
- Today's best price: $0.26 per round (31.58% below all-time average)
These figures highlight both the volatility and current value proposition in the .40 S&W ammunition market.
Major Price Trends and Market Phases
The 2020-2021 Price Surge
The most dramatic feature of our price chart is the sharp price increase that began in mid-2020. During this period, .40 S&W ammunition prices climbed dramatically, eventually reaching nearly $1 per round at their peak. This exceptional surge was driven by multiple converging factors:
- The unprecedented demand surge during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Widespread supply chain disruptions affecting raw materials and manufacturing
- Social and political uncertainty driving first-time gun purchases
- Retailers implementing purchase limits as shelves emptied
The chart clearly shows the price volatility during this period, with rapid price increases followed by short plateaus as the market attempted to stabilize.
The Extended Decline (2021-2023)
Following the 2020-2021 peak, the .40 S&W market entered a prolonged but irregular downward trend. Unlike some other calibers that saw rapid price corrections, .40 S&W experienced a more gradual decline characterized by:
- Step-like price drops followed by extended periods of stability
- A consistent downward trajectory that took approximately two years to fully materialize
- Less dramatic price swings compared to more common calibers
This pattern suggests manufacturers prioritized production of more popular calibers first, with .40 S&W supply catching up more gradually.
Current Market Stability (2023-Present)
From late 2023 through March 2025, .40 S&W ammunition prices have maintained a period of relative stability. Current prices hover consistently between $0.25 and $0.30 per round, representing a significant improvement from the crisis pricing but still elevated compared to pre-2020 levels. Today's price of $0.26 represents good value, sitting 3.7% below both 3-month and 12-month averages.
What Drives .40 S&W Ammunition Prices?
Several key factors influence the price fluctuations we observe in the .40 S&W ammunition market:
Law Enforcement Adoption and Transition
As many law enforcement agencies have transitioned away from .40 S&W to 9mm in recent years, this has created interesting market dynamics. Initial surplus availability temporarily increased supply, but reduced overall production volume has impacted long-term pricing.
Manufacturing Priorities
Ammunition manufacturers typically allocate production capacity based on consumer demand. As a less popular caliber than 9mm, .40 S&W production often receives lower priority during supply constraints, leading to more persistent price elevations during shortage periods.
Raw Material Costs
The prices of copper, lead, brass, and propellants significantly impact ammunition costs. The larger case capacity and heavier bullets of .40 S&W (compared to 9mm) make it more susceptible to raw material price fluctuations.
Consumer Purchasing Patterns
The buying habits of .40 S&W users tend to be more stable and less reactive than those of more popular calibers, resulting in less dramatic panic-buying cycles but also slower price recoveries.
Smart Buying Strategies for .40 S&W Ammunition
Based on our analysis of historical price trends, here are some strategic approaches for purchasing .40 S&W ammunition:
Current Buying Opportunity
With today's price ($0.26) sitting 31.58% below the all-time average, current market conditions represent a favorable buying opportunity. Prices are relatively stable with a slight downward trend, suggesting now may be an ideal time to stock up.
Bulk Purchase Considerations
The relative stability of recent prices makes bulk purchases a sensible strategy. While dramatic price drops are unlikely in the near term, securing ammunition at current rates provides insurance against future volatility.
Quality vs. Price Balance
Given the current reasonable pricing, shooters may want to consider investing in higher quality defensive or match-grade ammunition rather than focusing solely on finding the absolute lowest price point.
Future Outlook for .40 S&W Ammunition Prices
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to influence .40 S&W ammunition pricing:
- Continued, though gradual, market consolidation as the caliber maintains its niche but important position
- Potential for moderate price increases in response to broader inflation and material costs
- Seasonal fluctuations around high-demand periods like hunting seasons and major competitions
- The ongoing impact of the 2024 election cycle on firearms and ammunition markets
While dramatic price increases seem unlikely in the near term, the relative stability of current pricing suggests that significant further decreases are equally improbable.
Conclusion: Making Informed .40 S&W Purchasing Decisions
The .40 S&W ammunition market has experienced remarkable volatility over the past four years, from the extreme highs of 2020-2021 to today's more moderate and stable pricing environment. Current prices represent a significant improvement from crisis levels but remain somewhat elevated compared to historical norms.
At BlackBasin.com, we're committed to helping shooters make informed ammunition purchases through transparent price tracking and market analysis. Whether you're stocking up for training, competition, or personal defense, understanding these market trends will help you maximize value and maintain your ammunition supply.
Bookmark our .40 S&W price tracking page and check back regularly for the latest updates on pricing trends and the best current deals available online.